Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 75

Denver Broncos 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

(12:52) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to PIT 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 84-A.Brown to PIT 44 for 13 yards (36-K.Webster).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model