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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 51

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Denver Broncos 27

What Actually Happened

(11:33) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to DEN 14, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 33-S.Keo.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.06 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model