Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 83

Denver Broncos 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

(10:40) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to PIT 42, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.72 EP
60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 83, worth -5.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model