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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 65

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Denver Broncos 27

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to DEN 29, Center-60-G.Warren. 11-J.Norwood for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DEN, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.12 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model