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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 70

Denver Broncos 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 27

What Actually Happened

(11:19) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 33 yards to PIT 37, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-48-S.Barrett.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.58 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model