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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 90

Denver Broncos 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 27

What Actually Happened

(7:36) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to PIT 44, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -3.39 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.25 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model