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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 48

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 – Denver Broncos 27

What Actually Happened

(5:43) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to DEN 11, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.50 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP