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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 36

Denver Broncos 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 34

What Actually Happened

(2:17) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short left to 22-C.Anderson. Coverage by #50 Shazier.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.19 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model