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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 19 at the 65

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 1-P.McAfee punts 44 yards to HOU 21, Center-45-M.Overton. 12-K.Mumphery ran ob at HOU 28 for 7 yards (45-M.Overton).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.10 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model