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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2015-12-20 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

HOU
51.3%
IND
48.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 22
–
IND 21
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

HOU

Christian Covington DT Out Ankle
Brian Hoyer QB Out Concussion
Alfred Blue RB Probable Back
Max Bullough LB Probable Shoulder
Brian Cushing LB Probable Hip
Quintin Demps S Probable Groin
Ryan Griffin TE Probable Ankle
Kareem Jackson CB Probable Ankle
Ben Jones C Probable Hand
Whitney Mercilus LB Probable Back
Chris Polk RB Probable Knee
Jadeveon Clowney LB Probable Hamstring
J.J. Watt DE Probable Hand

IND

Colt Anderson S Out Ankle
Andrew Luck QB Out Abdomen
D'Joun Smith CB Out Knee
Donte Moncrief WR Questionable Toe
Gregory Toler CB Questionable Knee
Anthony Castonzo T Probable Knee
Vontae Davis CB Probable Knee
Jack Doyle TE Probable Toe
Jerrell Freeman LB Probable Hamstring
Hugh Thornton G Probable Elbow
Erik Walden LB Probable Foot
Matt Hasselbeck QB Probable Back
D'Qwell Jackson LB Probable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 16
–
IND 10

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:54 TD IND (14:54) (Shotgun) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short middle to 10-D.Moncrief for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – IND 6
  • Q2 06:17 FG IND (6:17) 4-A.Vinatieri 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. HOU 0 – IND 10
  • Q2 00:02 FG HOU (:02) 8-N.Novak 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 3 – IND 10
  • Q3 02:48 FG HOU (2:48) 8-N.Novak 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 6 – IND 10
  • Q4 10:43 TD HOU (10:43) (Run formation) 5-B.Weeden pass short right to 11-J.Strong for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 12 – IND 10
  • Q4 02:00 FG HOU (2:00) 8-N.Novak 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 16 – IND 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 34%

    (12:24) (Shotgun) 33-A.Hunt left end pushed ob at IND 27 for 21 yards (29-M.Adams).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 54%

    (6:30) 1-P.McAfee punts 29 yards to HOU 11, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 18-C.Shorts III.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:01) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to IND 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-Q.Bray to HOU 47 for 33 yards (45-J.Prosch).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 49%

    (11:29) 1-P.McAfee punts 35 yards to HOU 7, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 18-C.Shorts III.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 18 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:39) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to IND 46, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-Q.Bray ran ob at HOU 35 for 19 yards.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (6:17) 4-A.Vinatieri 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 57%

    (4:15) 8-N.Novak 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 15 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 39%

    (2:23) 1-P.McAfee punts 38 yards to HOU 8, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 18-C.Shorts III.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 19 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (11:41) 1-P.McAfee punts 44 yards to HOU 21, Center-45-M.Overton. 12-K.Mumphery ran ob at HOU 28 for 7 yards (45-M.Overton).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 20 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (9:40) 9-S.Lechler punts 59 yards to IND 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-Q.Bray to IND 26 for 15 yards (51-J.Simon). PENALTY on IND-31-J.Brown, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at IND 11.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 15 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:21) 1-P.McAfee punts 46 yards to IND 47, Center-45-M.Overton. 12-K.Mumphery to IND 32 for 15 yards (27-W.Guy).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 19 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 78%

    (2:48) 8-N.Novak 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (:44) 1-P.McAfee punts 55 yards to HOU 11, Center-45-M.Overton. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 10 for -1 yards (27-W.Guy).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 41%

    (12:45) (Run formation) 63-K.Lamm reported in as eligible. 28-A.Blue right end to IND 44 for 1 yard (21-V.Davis).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 36%

    (6:54) 1-P.McAfee punts 41 yards to HOU 6, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:18) 9-S.Lechler punts 42 yards to IND 36, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-Q.Bray to HOU 49 for 15 yards (31-C.James). HOU-31-C.James was injured during the play.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 94%

    (2:00) 8-N.Novak 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.