Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 20 at the 70

Houston Texans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 9-S.Lechler punts 59 yards to IND 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-Q.Bray to IND 26 for 15 yards (51-J.Simon). PENALTY on IND-31-J.Brown, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at IND 11.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.46 EP
76% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model