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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 99

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 1-P.McAfee punts 46 yards to IND 47, Center-45-M.Overton. 12-K.Mumphery to IND 32 for 15 yards (27-W.Guy).

The Three Options

GO -4.36 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.91 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 99, worth -6.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 53, worth -2.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model