4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 19 at the 29

Houston Texans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 8-N.Novak 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.26 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model