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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 47

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 1-P.McAfee punts 41 yards to HOU 6, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.50 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model