Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 78

Houston Texans 13 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 9-S.Lechler punts 42 yards to IND 36, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-Q.Bray to HOU 49 for 15 yards (31-C.James). HOU-31-C.James was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.35 EP
64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 78, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model