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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 71

New York Jets 6 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(11:24) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to DAL 26, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.41 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP