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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Saturday 2015-12-19 · 20:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

NYJ
62.1%
DAL
37.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NYJ: Matt Cassel (DAL) -0.248 vs Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) +0.139 EPA/dropback
  • DAL offense: -0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 22
–
DAL 19
Projected margin: NYJ by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

NYJ

Devin Smith WR Out Knee
Dion Bailey S Probable Ankle
Kellen Davis TE Probable Wrist
Eric Decker WR Probable Knee
Leger Douzable DE Probable Ankle
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Probable left Thumb
Brandon Marshall WR Probable Ankle
Ronald Martin S Probable Groin
Rontez Miles S Probable Achilles
Dee Milliner CB Probable Ankle
Muhammad Wilkerson DE Probable Wrist
Marcus Williams CB Probable Knee
Breno Giacomini T Probable Hip
Jeremy Kerley WR Probable Calf
Nick Mangold C Probable Hand
Calvin Pace LB Probable Abdomen

DAL

Rolando McClain LB Out Concussion
Tony Romo QB Out left Shoulder
Morris Claiborne CB Doubtful Hamstring
Dez Bryant WR Probable Foot
Jeff Heath S Probable Shoulder
David Irving DE Probable Back
Demarcus Lawrence DE Probable Chest
Kyle Wilber LB Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 19
–
DAL 16

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:50 FG DAL (10:50) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NYJ 0 – DAL 3
  • Q1 00:35 TD NYJ (:35) (Shotgun) 29-B.Powell right guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – DAL 3
  • Q2 07:06 FG NYJ (7:06) (Field Goal formation) 8-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NYJ 9 – DAL 3
  • Q2 01:25 TD DAL (1:25) (Shotgun) 17-K.Moore pass short left to 88-D.Bryant for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – DAL 9
  • Q3 03:49 FG DAL (3:49) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NYJ 9 – DAL 13
  • Q4 09:01 TD NYJ (9:01) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 87-E.Decker for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 15 – DAL 13
  • Q4 02:00 FG DAL (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. Bailey's kick glanced off the right upright post before falling over the crossbar. NYJ 16 – DAL 16
  • Q4 00:41 FG NYJ (:41) (Field Goal formation) 8-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NYJ 19 – DAL 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (10:50) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:46) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 25 yards to NYJ 43, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (3:17) 33-C.Ivory up the middle to DAL 4 for -1 yards (90-D.Lawrence).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:24) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 52 yards to NYJ 40, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 13 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:30) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to NYJ 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:24) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to DAL 26, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%

    (7:06) (Field Goal formation) 8-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:49) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to NYJ 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 57 yards to DAL 30, Center-46-T.Purdum. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 45 for 15 yards (29-B.Powell; 57-T.Reilly).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%

    (:03) (Field Goal formation) 8-R.Bullock 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 49%

    (9:31) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 29 yards to DAL 13, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 18 for 5 yards (55-L.Mauldin).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 8 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

    (3:49) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:58) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to DAL 10, Center-46-T.Purdum. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 13 for 3 yards (85-J.Cumberland).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 13 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:15) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to NYJ 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 11-J.Kerley ran ob at NYJ 30 for 7 yards.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 46 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 39%

    (4:13) (Shotgun) 17-K.Moore pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley to NYJ 37 for 9 yards (31-A.Cromartie). Pass complete on a crossing pattern.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 73%

    (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. Bailey's kick glanced off the right upright post before falling over the crossbar.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 88%

    (:41) (Field Goal formation) 8-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.