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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 18

New York Jets 6 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(7:06) (Field Goal formation) 8-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.90 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model