4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 87

New York Jets 9 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 57 yards to DAL 30, Center-46-T.Purdum. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 45 for 15 yards (29-B.Powell; 57-T.Reilly).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.87 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 87, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 45, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model