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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 27

New York Jets 9 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Field Goal formation) 8-R.Bullock 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.61 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model