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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 9

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(10:50) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.98 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 9, worth +0.44 EP
KICK +2.49 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model