4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 19

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(3:49) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.17 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 19, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model