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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 57

New York Jets 9 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(1:58) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to DAL 10, Center-46-T.Purdum. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 13 for 3 yards (85-J.Cumberland).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.70 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 57, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 17, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model