Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 69

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New York Jets 9

(14:15) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to NYJ 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 11-J.Kerley ran ob at NYJ 30 for 7 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.28 EP
72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model