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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 32

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. Bailey's kick glanced off the right upright post before falling over the crossbar.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.09 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model