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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 82

New York Jets 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(9:46) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 25 yards to NYJ 43, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.56 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 82, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 40, worth -2.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model