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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 22

New York Jets 16 – Dallas Cowboys 16

What Actually Happened

(:41) (Field Goal formation) 8-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +1.58 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.73 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model