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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 92

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(2:24) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 52 yards to NYJ 40, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.63 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 92, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 50, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model