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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 22-D.Martin left tackle to LA 25 for -2 yards (99-A.Donald).

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.22 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model