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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Lovie Smith
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St. Louis Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
Thursday 2015-12-17 · 20:25 Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

TB
66.7%
STL
33.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.195 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Case Keenum (LA) -0.169 vs Jameis Winston (TB) +0.115 EPA/dropback
  • LA defense: -0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TB 24
–
STL 19
Projected margin: TB by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

TB

Vincent Jackson WR Out Knee
Akeem Spence DT Out Ankle
Bruce Carter LB Doubtful Ankle
George Johnson DE Questionable Calf
Logan Mankins G Questionable Ankle
Jacquies Smith DE Questionable Hamstring
Lavonte David LB Probable Ankle
Gerald McCoy DT Probable Hand

STL

Andrew Donnal T Out Knee
Robert Quinn DE Out Back
Eric Patterson CB Questionable Ankle
Kenny Britt WR Probable Shoulder
Todd Gurley RB Probable Not Injury Related
Rob Havenstein T Probable Calf
Janoris Jenkins CB Probable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 23
–
STL 31

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:06 TD LA (12:06) 17-C.Keenum pass short left to 11-T.Austin for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – STL 6
  • Q1 04:57 FG TB (4:57) 10-C.Barth 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 3 – STL 7
  • Q1 03:23 TD LA (3:23) 17-C.Keenum pass deep left to 18-K.Britt for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-38-J.Adjei-Barimah, Illegal Contact, declined. TB 3 – STL 13
  • Q2 02:16 TD LA (2:16) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – STL 20
  • Q3 09:19 FG TB (9:19) 10-C.Barth 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 6 – STL 21
  • Q3 05:42 TD LA (5:42) 11-T.Austin right end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB-92-W.Gholston was injured during the play. TB-23-C.Conte was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. TB 6 – STL 27
  • Q4 13:09 TD TB (13:09) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 88-L.Stocker for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – STL 28
  • Q4 10:42 FG LA (10:42) 4-G.Zuerlein 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. TB 13 – STL 31
  • Q4 07:34 FG TB (7:34) 10-C.Barth 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 16 – STL 31
  • Q4 01:39 TD TB (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 87-A.Seferian-Jenkins for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 22 – STL 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 30%

    (8:50) 5-J.Schum punts 35 yards to LA 15, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:47) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to TB 39, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 66%

    (4:57) 10-C.Barth 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:52) 5-J.Schum punts 52 yards to LA 31, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-52-J.George.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 24%

    (14:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to TB 4, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-46-C.Harkey.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 87%

    (7:30) 22-D.Martin left tackle to LA 25 for -2 yards (99-A.Donald).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:17) 5-J.Schum punts 35 yards to TB 49, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (9:19) 10-C.Barth 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 59%

    (15:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 34 yards to TB 4, impetus ends at TB 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-34-C.Reynolds. PENALTY on TB-91-D.Bowers, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at TB 4.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.88 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 98%

    (10:42) 4-G.Zuerlein 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (7:34) 10-C.Barth 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:21) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to TB 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:05) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to TB 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.