Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 86

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 21

(1:17) 5-J.Schum punts 35 yards to TB 49, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -3.24 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.95 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 86, worth -5.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model