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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 38

Los Angeles Rams 28 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 34 yards to TB 4, impetus ends at TB 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-34-C.Reynolds. PENALTY on TB-91-D.Bowers, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at TB 4.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.64 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -3.43 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP