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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Los Angeles Rams 31

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 10-C.Barth 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +2.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.36 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 6, worth +0.37 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model