Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 79

Los Angeles Rams 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

(6:21) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to TB 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.14 EP
64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model