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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 64

Los Angeles Rams 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to TB 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.74 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 64, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 22, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model