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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 35

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 10-C.Barth 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.92 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 35, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model