Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 83

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 14

(1:52) 5-J.Schum punts 52 yards to LA 31, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-52-J.George.

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 83, worth -5.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model