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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 8

Chicago Bears 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:05) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.05 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model