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Chicago Bears

6-9 HC John Fox
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

6-9 HC Lovie Smith
Sunday 2015-12-27 · 13:00 ET Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CHI
36.2%
TB
63.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CHI defense: -0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Jameis Winston (TB): +0.127 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB on 3 more days rest than CHI

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CHI 21 14–28
–
TB 25 18–32
Projected margin: TB by 4 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

CHI

Alshon Jeffery WR Doubtful Hamstring
Shea McClellin LB Doubtful Concussion
Adrian Amos S Questionable Shoulder
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Quadricep
Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Knee
Tracy Porter CB Questionable Ankle
Eddie Royal WR Questionable Knee

TB

Vincent Jackson WR Out Knee
Akeem Spence DT Out Ankle
Kourtnei Brown DE Doubtful Groin
Chris Conte S Doubtful Knee
Logan Mankins G Questionable Knee
Bruce Carter LB Probable Ankle
George Johnson DE Probable Calf
Gerald McCoy DT Probable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 26
–
TB 21

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:34 TD TB (6:34) 22-D.Martin up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CHI 0 – TB 6
  • Q2 11:39 TD CHI (11:39) 25-K.Carey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – TB 7
  • Q2 03:05 FG CHI (3:05) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 10 – TB 7
  • Q2 00:12 FG CHI (:12) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 13 – TB 7
  • Q3 11:38 TD TB (11:38) (Shotgun) 64-K.Pamphile reported in as eligible. 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 34-C.Sims for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – TB 13
  • Q4 15:00 TD CHI (15:00) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 25-K.Carey for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 19 – TB 14
  • Q4 09:09 FG CHI (9:09) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 23 – TB 14
  • Q4 01:12 FG CHI (1:12) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 26 – TB 14
  • Q4 00:10 TD TB (:10) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 87-A.Seferian-Jenkins for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 26 – TB 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:02) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to TB 18, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (8:40) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:45) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 52-J.George, Center-48-P.Scales, RECOVERED by TB-95-H.Jones at CHI 4. 95-H.Jones to CHI 4 for no gain (16-P.O'Donnell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 18%

    (2:29) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to TB 10, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 15 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:57) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 34 yards to CHI 32, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (3:05) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 38 yards to CHI 46, Center-48-A.DePaola. 80-M.Mariani to TB 49 for 5 yards (48-A.DePaola).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (:12) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:26) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to TB 23, Center-48-P.Scales. 43-B.Rainey MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 24. 43-B.Rainey to TB 24 for no gain (31-C.Prosinski; 27-S.McManis). PENALTY on TB-21-A.Verner, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 24.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:55) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to TB 23, Center-48-P.Scales. 43-B.Rainey MUFFS catch, touched at TB 23, and recovers at TB 23. 43-B.Rainey to TB 23 for no gain (52-L.Reynolds).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:30) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 41 yards to CHI 28, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 66%

    (9:09) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 20 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 60%

    (6:35) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 87%

    (1:12) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →