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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 9

Chicago Bears 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(:12) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.88 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model