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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 71

Chicago Bears 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:26) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to TB 23, Center-48-P.Scales. 43-B.Rainey MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 24. 43-B.Rainey to TB 24 for no gain (31-C.Prosinski; 27-S.McManis). PENALTY on TB-21-A.Verner, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 24.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP