Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Chicago Bears 20

(13:30) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 41 yards to CHI 28, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.82 EP
64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 69, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model