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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 32

Chicago Bears 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:09) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.22 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model