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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 20 at the 34

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Chicago Bears 23

What Actually Happened

(6:35) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.86 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model