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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 71

Chicago Bears 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:45) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 52-J.George, Center-48-P.Scales, RECOVERED by TB-95-H.Jones at CHI 4. 95-H.Jones to CHI 4 for no gain (16-P.O'Donnell).

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.87 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP