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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 6-T.Coons 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.60 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model