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Cleveland Browns

HC Mike Pettine
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2015-12-27 · 13:00 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 💨 Windy Spread 11.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

CLE
21.9%
KC
78.1%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC defense: -0.209 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Alex Smith (KC): +0.104 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

CLE 15
–
KC 27
Projected margin: KC by 12 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

CLE

Glenn Winston RB Out Concussion
Cameron Erving G Questionable Ankle
Duke Johnson RB Questionable Hamstring
Alex Mack C Questionable Calf
Marlon Moore WR Questionable Ribs
Joe Thomas T Questionable Knee
K'Waun Williams CB Questionable Shoulder
Desmond Bryant DE Probable Thumb
Travis Coons K Probable right Groin
Isaiah Crowell RB Probable Not Injury Related
Taylor Gabriel WR Probable Not Injury Related

KC

Husain Abdullah S Out Concussion
Justin Houston LB Out Knee
Tamba Hali LB Questionable Thumb
Jeff Allen G Probable Ankle
Dee Ford LB Probable Knee
Travis Kelce TE Probable Groin
De'Anthony Thomas WR Probable Concussion
Spencer Ware RB Probable Rib

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 13
–
KC 17

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:57 TD KC (7:57) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 19-J.Maclin for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 02:24 FG KC (2:24) 5-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. CLE 0 – KC 10
  • Q2 09:02 FG CLE (9:02) 6-T.Coons 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 3 – KC 10
  • Q2 00:36 TD KC (:36) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – KC 16
  • Q3 09:21 TD CLE (9:21) 34-I.Crowell right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – KC 17
  • Q4 08:31 FG CLE (8:31) 6-T.Coons 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 13 – KC 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:09) 8-A.Lee punts 47 yards to KC 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 61%

    (4:31) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith scrambles up the middle to CLE 24 for 9 yards (36-K.Williams).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 86%

    (2:24) 5-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 17%

    (15:00) 8-A.Lee punts 39 yards to KC 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 85-F.Hammond to KC 20 for 8 yards (59-T.Carder).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (12:46) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to CLE 28, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 44 for 16 yards (17-C.Conley).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 76%

    (9:02) 6-T.Coons 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 20 at the 34
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 58%

    (2:15) 2-D.Colquitt punts 25 yards to CLE 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 22-T.Williams to CLE 10 for 1 yard (49-D.Sorensen).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:46) 8-A.Lee punts 49 yards to KC 35, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 85-F.Hammond to KC 44 for 9 yards (33-J.Poyer).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 24%

    (5:35) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:21) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 33-J.Poyer. 33-J.Poyer up the middle to CLE 32 for 10 yards (49-D.Sorensen). PENALTY on CLE-33-J.Poyer, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 96%

    (10:12) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel right end ran ob at KC 7 for 3 yards (90-J.Mauga).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 18 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 18% p(FG) 90%

    (8:31) 6-T.Coons 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (5:41) 2-D.Colquitt punts 35 yards to CLE 42, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 69%

    (3:01) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass incomplete deep right to 11-T.Benjamin.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 34 yards to CLE 30, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.50 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 64%

    (:15) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass short right to 10-D.Jennings to KC 18 for 14 yards (38-R.Parker).