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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 20 at the 34

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 2-D.Colquitt punts 25 yards to CLE 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 22-T.Williams to CLE 10 for 1 yard (49-D.Sorensen).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.09 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP