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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 84

Cleveland Browns 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 8-A.Lee punts 49 yards to KC 35, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 85-F.Hammond to KC 44 for 9 yards (33-J.Poyer).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.95 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 84, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 42, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model