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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 47

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.43 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model